Treasury Yields Vary
Published September 5, 2025
U.S. Treasury yields varied early in the week as investors waited for the latest job hiring numbers from the private sector. Yields declined at the end of the week as the jobless claims report suggested a softening of the labor market.
On Thursday, ADP reported that private sector hiring rose less than expected in August, indicating a weakening labor market. The payroll processing company detailed that private payrolls increased by 54,000 in August, far below the revised gain of 106,000 in July and below analysts’ expectations of an increase of 75,000.
“The year started with strong job growth, but that momentum has been whipsawed by uncertainty,” said chief economist at ADP, Dr. Nela Richardson. “A variety of things could explain the hiring slowdown, including labor shortages, skittish consumers, and AI disruptions.”
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of September 2 at 4.23% and traded as low as 4.16% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.93% and traded as low as 4.85% on Thursday.
On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment were 237,000 for the week ending August 30. This was up 8,000 from the prior week and above expectations of 230,000. Continuing unemployment claims decreased by 4,000 to 1.94 million.
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly jobs report for August which indicated the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, from 4.2% in July. The report also noted an increase of 22,000 jobs in August, below economists’ forecasts of 75,000.
"We continue to see softness growing in the labor market as tariff policy uncertainty lingers, immigration changes take effect, and AI adoption grows," said chief investment officer at Comerica Wealth Management, Eric Teal. “The silver lining is the weaker the jobs data, the more cover there is for stimulative interest rate cuts that are on the horizon.”
The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 9/1 at 4.08%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.76%.
